{"id":5739,"date":"2021-09-20T06:58:21","date_gmt":"2021-09-20T06:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/euromenaenergy.com\/?p=5739"},"modified":"2021-09-20T06:58:21","modified_gmt":"2021-09-20T06:58:21","slug":"why-an-electric-car-battery-is-so-expensive-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/?p=5739","title":{"rendered":"Why an Electric Car Battery Is So Expensive, For Now"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/TSLA:US\">Tesla Inc.<\/a>\u2019s ballyhooed Battery Day event last year, CEO Elon Musk set himself an ambitious target: to produce a $25,000 electric vehicle by 2023. Hitting that sticker price &#8212; about $15,000 cheaper than the company\u2019s\u00a0<a title=\"Link to cost of Tesla Model 3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tesla.com\/model3\/design#battery\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">least expensive model<\/a>\u00a0today &#8212; is seen as critical to deliver a true, mass-market product. Getting there means finding new savings on technology &#8212; most critically the batteries that can make up a third of an EV\u2019s cost &#8212; without compromising safety. Alongside Musk, traditional automaking giants including\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/7203:JP\">Toyota Motor Co.<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/VOW:GR\">Volkswagen AG<\/a>\u00a0are pouring tens of billions of dollars into the race.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"1-why-are-ev-batteries-so-expensive\">1. Why are EV batteries so expensive?<\/h3>\n<p>Largely because of what goes in them. An EV uses the same rechargeable lithium-ion batteries that are in your laptop or mobile phone, they\u2019re just much bigger &#8212; cells grouped in packs resembling big suitcases &#8212; to enable them to deliver far more energy. The priciest component in each battery cell is the cathode, one of the two electrodes that store and release electricity. The materials needed in cathodes to pack in more energy are often expensive: metals like cobalt, nickel, lithium and manganese. They need to be mined, processed and converted into high-purity chemical compounds.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2-how-much-are-we-talking\" class=\"paywall\">2. How much are we talking?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall\">At current rates and pack sizes, the average battery cost for a typical EV works out to about $6,300. Battery pack prices have come down a lot &#8212; 89% over the past decade, according to\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QUFO0CDWRGGH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BloombergNEF<\/a>. But the industry average price of $137 per kilowatt hour (from about $1,191 in 2010) is still above the $100 threshold at which the cost should match a car with an internal-combustion engine. Costs aren\u2019t expected to keep falling as quickly, and rising raw materials prices haven\u2019t helped. Still, lithium-ion packs are on track to drop to $92 per kWh by 2024, according to BNEF forecasts, and $58 per kwh by 2030.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"paywall\" data-id=\"378241001\" data-type=\"image\" data-image-type=\"chart\" data-image-size=\"full\" data-align=\"center\" data-widget-url=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/toaster\/v2\/charts\/acdc7f7056b14b989ef079b2d3923f9f.html?brand=technology&amp;webTheme=technology&amp;web=true&amp;hideTitles=true\">\n<div class=\"chart\" data-responsive=\"true\">\n<div class=\"chart-js\">\n<h3 id=\"greedy-for-gigawatts\" class=\"chart__title\">Greedy for Gigawatts<\/h3>\n<p class=\"chart__subtitle\">EVs are going to be the driving force for lithium-ion battery demand<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart__container\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/toaster\/v2\/charts\/acdc7f7056b14b989ef079b2d3923f9f.html?brand=technology&amp;webTheme=technology&amp;web=true&amp;hideTitles=true\" data-toaster-id=\"378241001\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/toaster\/v2\/charts\/acdc7f7056b14b989ef079b2d3923f9f.html?brand=technology&amp;webTheme=technology&amp;web=true&amp;hideTitles=true\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" data-toaster-id=\"378241001\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p class=\"chart__source\">Source: BloombergNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook, June 2021<\/p>\n<p class=\"chart__footnote\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"3-how-will-the-batteries-get-cheaper\" class=\"paywall\">3. How will the batteries get cheaper?<\/h3>\n<p class=\"paywall\">A major focus for manufacturers is on the priciest commodities, and particularly cobalt. One option is to substitute the metal with nickel, which is cheaper and holds more energy. Doing so requires safety adjustments, however, as cobalt\u2019s advantage is that it doesn\u2019t overheat or catch fire easily. Another move has been to use alternatives that don\u2019t contain cobalt at all, like low-cost lithium iron phosphate cells, once derided for poorer performance but winning a revival as design changes deliver improvements. Simplifying battery pack design, and using a standard product for a range of vehicles &#8212; rather than a pack tailored to each model &#8212; will deliver additional savings.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"4-what-about-fire-risks\" class=\"paywall\">4. What about fire risks?<\/h3>\n<p>Lithium-ion batteries, whether used in grid-sized storage facilities, cars or devices like smartphones, can catch fire if they\u2019ve been manufactured poorly, damaged in an\u00a0<a title=\"Tesla With \u2018No One\u2019 Driving Crashes in Texas, Killing Two (4)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-04-18\/tesla-with-no-one-driving-crashes-in-texas-killing-two-men\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">accident<\/a>, or the software that runs them hasn\u2019t been designed properly. Incidents remain rare, but garner huge scrutiny in what remains a developing sector. A decision in August by\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/GM:US\">General Motors Co.<\/a>\u00a0to carry out a\u00a0<a title=\"GM CEO Says Bolt Recall Offers Lessons for Entire Auto Industry\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2021-08-27\/gm-ceo-says-bolt-recall-offers-lessons-for-entire-auto-industry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$1.8 billion recall<\/a>\u00a0of more than 100,000 Chevrolet Bolt models as a result of battery defects underscored the seriousness. Blazes or overheating incidents this year also impacted major energy storage projects in\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Fire at Tesla Big Battery Under Control After Weekend Blaze (1)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QX7DENDWRGG0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Australia<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Vistra Shuts Most of World\u2019s Top Battery After Overheating (1)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QZ2XDWDWLU6F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">California<\/a>. And the fires aren\u2019t easy to extinguish; it took firefighters four hours and took more than 30,000 gallons (113,560 liters) of water to douse a Tesla Model S after a fatal\u00a0<a title=\"Tesla Crash Spurs Probes After Two Die With \u2018No One\u2019 Driving (1)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-04-19\/nhtsa-to-investigate-fatal-tesla-crash-that-killed-two-people\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">crash<\/a>\u00a0in Texas. Tesla insists that incidents involving electric models garner undue attention. According to its\u00a0<a title=\"Link to report\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tesla.com\/ns_videos\/2020-tesla-impact-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2020 Impact Report<\/a>, cars with internal-combustion engines (ICE) catch fire at a \u201cvastly\u201d higher rate. From 2012 to 2020 there was about one Tesla fire for every 205 million miles (330 million kilometers) traveled, compared to a fire every 19 million miles for ICE vehicles, the EV pioneer said.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"5-who-are-the-biggest-manufacturers\">5. Who are the biggest manufacturers?<\/h3>\n<aside class=\"left-rail-newsletter\"><\/aside>\n<p>Asia\u00a0<a title=\"Are Batteries the Trade War China\u2019s Already Won?\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-09-16\/are-batteries-the-trade-war-china-s-already-won\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dominates<\/a>\u00a0manufacturing of lithium-ion cells, accounting for more than 80% of existing capacity. The Chinese company\u00a0<a title=\"The Breakneck Rise of China\u2019s Colossus of Electric-Car Batteries\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2018-02-01\/the-breakneck-rise-of-china-s-colossus-of-electric-car-batteries\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd.<\/a>\u00a0(CATL) shipped the highest volume in 2020,\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Global EV Battery Sales Jump 21%, CATL in Pole Position: SNE\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QNTRUKT0AFB5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">capturing<\/a>\u00a0almost a quarter of the market. By September this year it had\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Global EV Battery Sales Jump 144% in First Seven Months of Year\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QYQCQPDWX2PW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">extended<\/a>\u00a0its lead to 30%, followed by South Korea-based\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/1873735D:KS\">LG Energy Solution<\/a>\u00a0and Japan\u2019s\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/6752:JP\">Panasonic Corp.<\/a>\u00a0Tesla and Panasonic\u2019s joint venture is the biggest battery producer in the U.S. Emerging producers include\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/1531142D:SS\">Northvolt AB<\/a>\u00a0in Sweden, founded by former Tesla executives, and\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/002074:CH\">Gotion High-tech Co.<\/a>\u00a0in China.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"6-are-the-batteries-all-the-same\">6. Are the batteries all the same?<\/h3>\n<p>They have the same basic components: two electrodes &#8212; a cathode and an anode &#8212; and an electrolyte that helps shuttle the charge between them. But there are differences in the materials used, and that\u2019s key to the amount of energy they hold. Grid-storage systems or vehicles traveling short distances can use cheaper and less powerful cathode chemistry that combines lithium, iron and phosphate. For higher-performance vehicles, automakers favor more energy-dense materials, such as lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide or lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide. Further refinements are seeking to improve range &#8212; how far a vehicle can travel before recharging &#8212; as well as charging speed.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"7-so-chinas-in-pole-position\">7. So China\u2019s in pole position?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"inline-newsletter-middle\"><\/div>\n<p>Yes, in almost every aspect. China is responsible for about 80% of the chemical refining that converts lithium, cobalt and other raw materials into battery ingredients, though the metals themselves are largely mined in Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile. China also dominates processing capacity across four key battery components (cathodes, anodes, electrolyte solutions and separators), with more than half of the world\u2019s commissioned capacity for each, BNEF\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Energy Storage Trade and Manufacturing: A Deep Dive\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QPT7IFT0G1KY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">data<\/a>\u00a0shows. The nation faces a\u00a0<a title=\"The U.S.-China Conflict Over Chips Is About to Get Uglier\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-10-21\/the-u-s-china-conflict-over-chips-is-about-to-get-even-uglier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">challenge<\/a>\u00a0when it comes to advanced semiconductor design and software, components that are increasingly important as cars become more\u00a0<a title=\"Driverless? No, But How About the Car as Co-Pilot?: QuickTake\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-08-16\/why-you-may-already-be-driving-the-car-of-the-future-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">intelligent<\/a>. Less than 5% of automotive chips are made in China, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"8-is-cost-the-only-hurdle\">8. Is cost the only hurdle?<\/h3>\n<p>There\u2019s still an issue with driving range. While the most-expensive EVs can travel 400 miles or more before a top up, consumers considering mainstream models remain anxious about how often they\u2019ll need to recharge. Automakers and governments have\u00a0<a title=\"The World Still Doesn\u2019t Have Enough Places to Plug In Cars\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2019-02-14\/the-world-still-doesn-t-have-enough-places-to-plug-in-cars\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">become directly involved\u00a0<\/a>in the roll-out of public recharging infrastructure for drivers on the road. However, most recharging is expected to take place at home, and that means another cost for consumers. While the\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Residential EV Charger Pricing \u2013 2021 Update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QVRO4QT0G1L4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">average price<\/a>\u00a0of a home-charging kit has fallen 18% since 2017 to about $650, some top-of-the-line bi-directional chargers (which let you send energy from the vehicle to the home or grid), cost more than $6,000. Installation costs in the U.S. can run from as little as $400 to more than $3,300.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"9-whats-around-the-corner\">9. What\u2019s around the corner?<\/h3>\n<p>Most keenly anticipated is the arrival of solid-state batteries, which promise a huge performance upgrade by replacing the flammable liquids that enable charging and discharging with ceramic, glass or polymers.\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/QS:US\">QuantumScape Corp.<\/a>\u00a0says it has innovations in that field to increase a car\u2019s range by as much as 50% and the technology could be deployed in vehicles at dealerships\u00a0<a title=\"QuantumScape's $20 Billion Leap From SPAC to Battery Future\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/features\/2021-quantumscape-battery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">as soon as 2026<\/a>. Another industry focus is modifying anodes &#8212; typically made using graphite &#8212; to add more silicon, or by using lithium metal. That would likely make it viable to power smaller aircraft. Storing renewable power with utility-scale batteries for days or weeks, rather than hours at present, is also a key challenge.\u00a0<a title=\"Company Overview\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/1647334D:US\">Form Energy Inc.<\/a>\u00a0is developing iron-air batteries that it says could enable entirely\u00a0<a title=\"Battery Startups Work on New Ways to Power EVs, With Less Hassle\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-01-22\/battery-startups-work-on-new-ways-to-power-evs-with-less-hassle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">carbon-free grids<\/a>. CATL and others are also working on plans to substitute lithium, or combine it with, far cheaper sodium-ion technology for some niche applications.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"the-reference-shelf\">The Reference Shelf<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Electric vehicle sales should increase sharply in the next few years and account for 16% of regular car sales by 2025, BNEF\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QUFO0CDWRGGH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">forecasts<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>These are the\u00a0<a title=\"Chemistry Nobel Hails Work on Batteries That Changed Society (2)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-10-09\/three-scientists-win-chemistry-nobel-for-lithium-ion-batteries\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nobel Prize winning scientists<\/a>\u00a0who pioneered the lithium-ion battery.<\/li>\n<li><a title=\"Are Batteries the Trade War China\u2019s Already Won?\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-09-16\/are-batteries-the-trade-war-china-s-already-won\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bloomberg News\u00a0<\/a>examines how the U.S. is falling behind as the EV battery soars.<\/li>\n<li>More QuickTakes on the road to\u00a0<a title=\"Driverless? No, But How About the Car as Co-Pilot?: QuickTake\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-08-16\/why-you-may-already-be-driving-the-car-of-the-future-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">driverless cars<\/a>, the broader trend toward\u00a0<a title=\"To Save the Planet, We\u2019ll Have to Plug More Things In: QuickTake\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-09-13\/to-save-the-planet-we-ll-have-to-plug-more-things-in-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">electrification<\/a>, greener\u00a0<a title=\"How Hydrogen Became the Hottest Thing in Green Energy: QuickTake\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-09-24\/how-hydrogen-became-the-hottest-thing-in-green-energy-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hydrogen<\/a>\u00a0and electric\u00a0<a title=\"Why Electric-Powered Airplanes Are Headed for Takeoff: QuickTake\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-06-21\/why-electric-powered-airplanes-are-headed-for-takeoff-quicktake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">airplanes<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Bloomberg Opinion\u2019s Anjani Trivedi explains how new power packs will\u00a0<a title=\"The Next Best\u00a0Electric Car Battery Is Here: Anjani Trivedi\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2021-09-13\/the-next-best-electric-car-battery-is-here-and-it-s-sodium-ion-based\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">require<\/a>\u00a0new supply chains.<\/li>\n<li>Bill Gates discusses the electrification of transportation in this\u00a0<a title=\"Bill Gates blog\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gatesnotes.com\/Energy\/Moving-around-in-a-zero-carbon-world\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">blog post<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>A\u00a0<a class=\"terminal-news-story\" title=\"Future of Batteries: Q&amp;A With Viswanathan: TOPLive Transcript\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/terminal\/QXKSTKT0G1L0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">TOPLive Q&amp;A<\/a>\u00a0with Carnegie Mellon University professor Venkat Viswanathan on the future of batteries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>\u2014 With assistance by Chunying Zhang<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At\u00a0Tesla Inc.\u2019s ballyhooed Battery Day event last year, CEO Elon Musk set himself an ambitious target: to produce a $25,000 electric vehicle by 2023. Hitting that sticker price &#8212; about $15,000 cheaper&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5740,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[46,48,57,68,76,77,82,86,87,90,96,99,103,107,109,111,113,137,139,146,148,160,174,183,184,201,202,209,222,230,232,233,244,246,249,256,262,263,267,277,279,280,285,288],"class_list":["post-5739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-clean-energy","tag-aramco","tag-athens","tag-baroudi","tag-carbon","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-co2","tag-cyprus","tag-decarbonising","tag-democracy","tag-doha","tag-eastmed","tag-egypt","tag-embargo","tag-emissions","tag-energy","tag-energy-peace","tag-gas","tag-gazprom","tag-greece","tag-greenenergy","tag-international-maritime-disputes","tag-lebanon","tag-maritime-boundaries-east-mediterranean","tag-maritime-disputes","tag-offshore","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-pollution","tag-poverty-alleviation","tag-putin","tag-qatar","tag-rosneft","tag-roudi","tag-russia","tag-saudi","tag-solar","tag-solar-power","tag-straddling-hydrocarbons-reserves","tag-total","tag-trump","tag-turkey","tag-unclos","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}