{"id":4509,"date":"2019-11-25T19:06:53","date_gmt":"2019-11-25T19:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/euromenaenergy.com\/?p=4509"},"modified":"2019-11-25T19:06:53","modified_gmt":"2019-11-25T19:06:53","slug":"opecs-flaring-crises-add-new-risk-for-oil-supply","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/?p=4509","title":{"rendered":"Opec\u2019s flaring crises add new risk for oil supply"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bloomberg\/London<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n

Opec may have no appetite to cut oil production deeper when it meets next month, but flaring political crises across the group are once again threatening supply.
\nUnrest erupted in Iraq and Iran this month \u2013 two of the Middle East\u2019s biggest producers \u2013 as people took to the streets protesting financial hardship and bad governance. That\u2019s adding to the range of supply threats already afflicting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, from economic collapse in Venezuela to simmering discontent in Algeria.
\n\u201cWe kind of had a second Arab Spring, but it\u2019s been under the radar,\u201d said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets. \u201cThe real question is what is going to happen in Iraq.\u201d
\nIraq, Opec\u2019s second-biggest producer, has cracked down on demonstrations against corruption in recent weeks that have spread to the southern oil hub of Basra. Iran has seen its oil exports slashed by US sanctions and is suppressing protests spurred by the resulting economic stagnation.
\nOpec and its allies \u2013 who together pump about half the world\u2019s oil \u2013 will meet in Vienna in early December to consider production levels for 2020, having cut output this year to prevent a global surplus. Despite signs that fragile demand and surging US shale supply will unleash a new glut, they\u2019ve signalled no desire to reduce output further.
\nThey may not have a choice.
\nIn recent years, unplanned supply disruptions within Opec nations have done as much to keep markets balanced as the group\u2019s deliberate cutbacks. Iran and Venezuela have lost a combined 1.7mn barrels a day since last October, more than all 24 nations in the Opec+ coalition agreed to cut this year.
\nAs turmoil intensifies across the group, next year could see more accidental losses: oil prices of about $60 a barrel are already below levels most Opec nations need to cover government spending, and a further slump would only deepen the strain.
\n\u201cThere is no better way to put it: the geopolitical risk is rising in the Middle East again,\u201d said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd in London.
\nAlgeria is struggling to placate a mass youth-led movement seeking change after ousting long-term President Abdelaziz Bouteflika earlier this year, and Libya remains split by armed factions. Ecuador, which will leave Opec in January, suffered a 20% slump in oil production last month amid riots and looting.
\nIn Iran protests were triggered by an increase in gasoline prices.
\nThe biggest risk is posed by Iraq, according to RBC\u2019s Croft. While the country\u2019s oil sector has proven robust during recent turbulence, even boosting output when Islamic State militants captured swathes of territory five years ago, the latest demonstrations reflect a new level of popular discontent.
\n\u201cIf you had attacks on infrastructure, oil workers going on strike \u2013 Iraq is the place that could surprise the market,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg\/London Opec may have no appetite to cut oil production deeper when it meets next month, but flaring political crises across the group are once again threatening supply. Unrest erupted in Iraq…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[46,48,57,68,76,77,82,86,87,90,96,99,103,107,109,111,113,137,139,146,148,160,174,183,184,201,202,209,222,230,232,233,244,246,249,256,262,263,267,277,279,280,285,288],"class_list":["post-4509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-aramco","tag-athens","tag-baroudi","tag-carbon","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-co2","tag-cyprus","tag-decarbonising","tag-democracy","tag-doha","tag-eastmed","tag-egypt","tag-embargo","tag-emissions","tag-energy","tag-energy-peace","tag-gas","tag-gazprom","tag-greece","tag-greenenergy","tag-international-maritime-disputes","tag-lebanon","tag-maritime-boundaries-east-mediterranean","tag-maritime-disputes","tag-offshore","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-pollution","tag-poverty-alleviation","tag-putin","tag-qatar","tag-rosneft","tag-roudi","tag-russia","tag-saudi","tag-solar","tag-solar-power","tag-straddling-hydrocarbons-reserves","tag-total","tag-trump","tag-turkey","tag-unclos","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4509\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}