{"id":2487,"date":"2019-02-28T04:30:19","date_gmt":"2019-02-28T04:30:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/euromenaenergy.com\/?p=2487"},"modified":"2019-02-28T04:30:19","modified_gmt":"2019-02-28T04:30:19","slug":"cyprus-likely-gas-field-find-raises-prospect-of-tension-with-turkey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/?p=2487","title":{"rendered":"Cyprus: likely gas field find raises prospect of tension with Turkey"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tensions between Cyprus and Turkey over energy could soon come to a head, with\u00a0ExxonMobil\u00a0apparently poised to announce a significant natural gas find off the divided island\u2019s southern coast.<\/p>\n

After more than three months of deep-water exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, the US firm is expected to unveil findings this week in what is being described as a seminal moment in the race to tap potentially profitable underwater resources.<\/p>\n

Charles Ellinas, an industry expert and former head of Cyprus\u2019s national hydrocarbons company, said: \u201cAll the seismic data suggests that enough has been found to excite ExxonMobil to continue exploration. Potentially there could be great reserves.\u201d<\/p>\n

But stakes could not be higher in the region. Amid escalating friction over the potential offshore energy find,\u00a0Turkey\u00a0has declared it will dispatch its own drilling ships to the area, a year after deploying gunboats to stop the Italian company Eni exploring for offshore wealth at the behest of Greek Cypriots.<\/p>\n

Last week Ankara said natural resources in the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, where tensions have also risen with Greece, remained \u201ca strategic goal and national issue\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the coming days we will start drilling with two ships around\u00a0Cyprus,\u201d said the Turkish foreign minister, Mevl\u00fct \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu, ratcheting up the rhetoric. \u201cLet those who come to the region from far away, and their companies, see that nothing can be done in that region without us. Nothing can be done in the Mediterranean without Turkey; we will not allow it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gas<\/a>\u00a0fields were first discovered in waters off Cyprus in 2011. ExxonMobil, one of five international oil companies exploring around the island, has focused on Block 10, adjacent to Egypt\u2019s giant Zohr field, which is believed to be the most promising of all the licensed areas.<\/p>\n

If unlocked, the deposits beneath the seabed could radically reshape energy geopolitics and \u2013 western politicians hope \u2013 ultimately lessen Europe\u2019s reliance on Russia for gas.<\/p>\n

\n

In ethnically split Cyprus, the prospect of an energy bonanza is also seen as a potential game changer that could help reconcile the island\u2019s rival Greek and Turkish communities.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there is a big find, there\u2019ll be big stakes backed up by a huge American company,\u201d said Hubert Faustmann, a professor of history and political science at the University of Nicosia. \u201cIt could be a blessing that will help end the seemingly intractable Cyprus problem. Even without a solution, there will be a lot of pressure to allow exploitation of the hydrocarbons.\u201d<\/p>\n

But with Ankara disputing Nicosia\u2019s maritime jurisdiction in seas riven with competing claims over boundaries \u2013 and increasingly incensed over energy agreements the island has signed with Greece, Israel and Egypt \u2013 a major discovery could also trigger other dynamics.\u00a0<\/strong>In the worst-case scenario, military conflict could break out, analysts believe.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe situation is escalating rather than de-escalating because Turkey is determined to stop exploitation of any resources in Cyprus\u2019 exclusive economic zone (EEZ) without its consent and if Turkish Cypriots don\u2019t also benefit from them,\u201d Faustmann said.<\/p>\n

Although experts caution that the reserves\u2019 commerciality is still far from assured, an air of optimism has filled Nicosia\u2019s colonial-era presidential palace. Some officials go as far as to speak of the European Union\u2019s easternmost member becoming a \u201cnew Kuwait\u201d, enriched by its role as a gas-producing hub.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it is a substantial reserve, a lot of things are going to change,\u201d said the government spokesman Prodromos Prodromou, conceding that underwater resources could be decisive in breaking the impasse in talks to reunify the island.<\/p>\n

\u201cA find of some magnitude could act as an incentive for Turkey to discuss a solution and compromise, but it is true the reaction could also be negative. [Turkey\u2019s president] Erdo\u011fan is unpredictable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cyprus has been partitioned between Turks in the north and a majority Greek population in the south since a short-lived coup, inspired by Athens and aimed at union with Greece, sparked Ankara to order a full-scale invasion in 1974.<\/p>\n

After seizing the island\u2019s northern third, up to 40,000 Turkish troops were stationed in the enclave, and Turkish Cypriots unilaterally proclaimde independence in 1981. Ever since, Turkey has refused to recognise the Republic of Cyprus or its claim to an exclusive economic zone in the seas beyond its coast.<\/p>\n

Hydrocarbons are expected to be high on the agenda when President Nicos Anastasiades, who heads the internationally recognised south, meets the Turkish-Cypriot leader Mustafa Ak\u0131nc\u0131 on Tuesday. The two men have had little contact since the collapse of reunification talks in 2017, when negotiations came closer than at any other time to resolving the west\u2019s longest-running dispute.<\/p>\n

After years of foot-dragging, and in a clear effort to resolve the brewing crisis, Anastasiades\u2019 government edged closer this month to creating a sovereign fund to manage revenues from reserves and ensure they are shared equitably between both communities. \u201cIt will send the message that when the time comes the money will be shared,\u201d said Prodromou of the fund due to be passed into law within days. \u201cThey won\u2019t be able to say that Greek Cypriots are taking advantage of Turkish Cypriots\u2019 interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Turkey, the only country to recognise the island\u2019s breakaway north, argues the offshore wealth should be part of a comprehensive Cyprus settlement.<\/p>\n

At a time when markets are flooded by cheap gas, industry experts say there is little prospect of any discovery becoming commercially viable anytime soon, even if demand is also growing.<\/p>\n

\u201cExxonMobil is looking for substantial quantities of gas to support its ultimate plan to build a liquefaction plant in Cyprus,\u201d said Ellinas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council\u2019s global energy centre. \u201cThis is only the beginning.\u201d<\/p>\n

But, in the meantime, there are fears that Ankara\u2019s threat to embark on drilling operations off Cyprus \u2013 despite strident criticism from the EU over the need \u201cto respect the sovereignty of member states\u201d \u2013 could take the battle over hydrocarbons to new and dangerous heights.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Turkey does start drilling, as it has threatened, in Cyprus\u2019 exclusive economic zone, it will be very, very provocative,\u201d said Ellinas. \u201cSuppose they actually find gas: what are they going to do then? It will turn everything upside down.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tensions between Cyprus and Turkey over energy could soon come to a head, with\u00a0ExxonMobil\u00a0apparently poised to announce a significant natural gas find off the divided island\u2019s southern coast. After more than three…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[46,48,57,90,96,107,113,137,139,160,174,183,184,201,202,209,230,232,233,244,246,249,256,267,277,279,288],"class_list":["post-2487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-aramco","tag-athens","tag-baroudi","tag-democracy","tag-doha","tag-embargo","tag-energy-peace","tag-gas","tag-gazprom","tag-international-maritime-disputes","tag-lebanon","tag-maritime-boundaries-east-mediterranean","tag-maritime-disputes","tag-offshore","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-poverty-alleviation","tag-putin","tag-qatar","tag-rosneft","tag-roudi","tag-russia","tag-saudi","tag-straddling-hydrocarbons-reserves","tag-total","tag-trump","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2487\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}