{"id":1863,"date":"2018-10-23T17:23:44","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T17:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/euromenaenergy.com\/?p=1863"},"modified":"2018-10-23T17:23:44","modified_gmt":"2018-10-23T17:23:44","slug":"khashoggi-case-has-put-saudi-prince-right-where-erdogan-wants-him","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/?p=1863","title":{"rendered":"Khashoggi case has put Saudi prince right where Erdo\u011fan wants him"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At about noon on Tuesday two regional leaders are due to make landmark addresses. In Riyadh, the\u00a0de\u00a0facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, will open an investment showpiece declaring the kingdom open for business. In Ankara, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, is expected to make a speech that may well shut down the beleaguered kingdom.<\/p>\n<p>Such are the stakes when Erdo\u011fan takes to a podium to discuss the death of the Saudi dissident\u00a0Jamal Khashoggi\u00a0that the region may not be the same when he\u2019s finished.<\/p>\n<p>Three weeks to the day since Khashoggi vanished after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Erdo\u011fan has pledged to table the \u201cnaked truth\u201d about what happened to the columnist and critic, whose fate continues to grip both countries and polarise the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>If he stays true to his pledge, much of the evidence that Turkey has gathered, incriminating\u00a0Saudi Arabiain a plot to kill Khashoggi, will be revealed: in pictures, video and even bloodcurdling audio said to document his torture and death.<\/p>\n<p>Setting the scene on Monday, a spokesman for the ruling party for the first time described Khashoggi\u2019s death as a \u201ccomplicated murder\u201d that was \u201cmonstrously planned\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>That Erdo\u011fan, not his bureaucrats, is now prepared to put his name to the material takes this extraordinary event to a new level. The Turkish strongman is expected to accuse the inner sanctum of power in Riyadh of organising a hit on Khashoggi, directly contradicting its\u00a0claims that state officers had acted beyond their authority\u00a0in an attempt to please their masters.<\/p>\n<p>Such an allegation carries with it a weight not yet seen in Riyadh, where blanket early denials had first given way to\u00a0begrudging disclosures, then partial admissions, cover-ups and fall guys. Dread is the order of the day, as the\u00a0already-troubled investment conference\u00a0looms. And in some quarters of the royal court, a palpable sense of panic has taken hold.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"element element-rich-link element--thumbnail element-rich-link--upgraded\" data-component=\"rich-link\" data-link-name=\"rich-link-1 | 1\">\n<div class=\"rich-link tone-news--item rich-link--pillar-news\">\n<div class=\"rich-link__container\">\n<div class=\"rich-link__image-container u-responsive-ratio\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/38d9ec649547b50b3e99075c049875cf48a46b67\/0_173_5184_3110\/master\/5184.jpg?width=460&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=eab832a95a2a29a24a26dab5f05df145\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"rich-link__header\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"rich-link__read-more\">\n<div class=\"rich-link__read-more-text\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Erdo\u011fan has the Saudis \u2013 in particular, the crown prince,\u00a0Mohammed bin Salman\u00a0(AKA MbS) \u2013 right where he wants him. Out of crisis has come opportunity for the veteran Turkish leader, who has never warmed to the brash 33-year-old, and thinks even less of his regional allies.<\/p>\n<p>The two men have vastly different visions for the future of the region: Erdo\u011fan has been a champion of political Islam both at home and abroad, particularly since the rise and fall of Mohamed Morsi, the ill-fated former president of Egypt who hailed from the Muslim Brotherhood. The Turkish president has partnered with Qatar, Riyadh\u2019s regional foe, given shelter to those exiled after Morsi fell, and remained a bulwark for a movement that Riyadh and its ally the United Arab Emirates see as existential threats.<\/p>\n<p>But he has remained on the losing end of the struggle for regional power and influence.<\/p>\n<p>The prince, meanwhile, has been attempting to remodel Saudi Arabia, eschewing its deep links to the Wahhabi, Salafi religious establishment and turning it into an Arab nationalist police state. Abu Dhabi and Cairo are models here. And with Riyadh, the triumvirate had been in the ascendant regionally, ever since Morsi fell.<\/p>\n<p>For Erdo\u011fan, the gruesome killing marks a historic moment: a chance to turn the tables gifted to him by a cruel and reckless act that has\u00a0sparked lasting revulsion, even among the\u00a0kingdom\u2019s allies.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis has become a strategic struggle between Erdo\u011fan and his vision for the Middle East and a vision shared by MbS and his allies, MbZ [Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi] and [the Egyptian president Abdel Fatah] al-Sisi,\u201d said Soner \u00c7a\u011faptay, the director of the Turkish programme at the Washington Institute.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cErdo\u011fan sees an opportunity in the Khashoggi murder \u2013 in that he realises MbS has become the weakest link in the anti-Erdo\u011fan, anti-Muslim Brotherhood corner of the region. This is really thin ice that MbS is dancing on and I think Erdo\u011fan is attempting to make it even thinner.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe roots really go back to 2013 [when Morsi was forced out of power]. He has refused to deal with the Sisi government, calling it illegitimate. Sisi is the secularist general who locked up political Islamists. And Erdo\u011fan is the\u00a0political Islamist who locked up secularist generals.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Senior Saudis who sought solace from Erdo\u011fan in Ankara in the past fortnight left town believing he had an even bigger prize in sight \u2013 relaunching\u00a0<a class=\"u-underline\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/turkey\" data-link-name=\"auto-linked-tag\" data-component=\"auto-linked-tag\">Turkey<\/a>\u00a0as a regional Islamic power base, while diminishing Riyadh\u2019s claim to be the pre-eminent voice for Sunni Islam.<\/p>\n<p>Khaled al-Faisal, the governor of Mecca, returned after seeing Erdo\u011fan and was really worried, one senior member of the royal family has revealed. \u201cHe wasn\u2019t budging, he didn\u2019t want to listen to anything we said. Al-Faisal came back and told the King we have a crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7a\u011faptay believes Erdo\u011fan\u2019s goals are more limited \u2013 for now. \u201cHe wants not to go after the Saudi royal family, to whom he\u2019s deferential, including the King. What he\u2019s trying to get out of this is to sideline, or maybe even neutralise MbS at least when it comes to Turkey. He wants to take one of his opponents out of that triple entente that opposes him.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At about noon on Tuesday two regional leaders are due to make landmark addresses. In Riyadh, the\u00a0de\u00a0facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, will open an investment showpiece declaring the kingdom&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1872,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[46,57,90,96,107,137,139,160,174,184,201,202,209,232,233,244,246,249,256,267,277,279,288],"class_list":["post-1863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-aramco","tag-baroudi","tag-democracy","tag-doha","tag-embargo","tag-gas","tag-gazprom","tag-international-maritime-disputes","tag-lebanon","tag-maritime-disputes","tag-offshore","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-putin","tag-qatar","tag-rosneft","tag-roudi","tag-russia","tag-saudi","tag-straddling-hydrocarbons-reserves","tag-total","tag-trump","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1863\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1872"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}