{"id":1394,"date":"2018-08-01T19:02:43","date_gmt":"2018-08-01T19:02:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/euromenaenergy.com\/?p=1394"},"modified":"2018-08-01T19:02:43","modified_gmt":"2018-08-01T19:02:43","slug":"time-for-europe-to-redefine-its-interests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emimer.com\/?p=1394","title":{"rendered":"Time for Europe to redefine its interests"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Mark Leonard\/Berlin<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Donald Trump is the first US president to think that the US-led world order is undermining US interests.
\nThough the current order obviously benefits the United States, Trump is convinced that it benefits China even more.
\nFearing China\u2019s ascendance as another pole of global power, Trump has launched a project of creative destruction to destroy the old order and establish a new one that is more favourable for the US.
\nTrump wants to pursue this objective by engaging with countries bilaterally, thereby always negotiating from a position of strength.
\nHe has shown particular disdain for traditional US allies, whom he accuses of free riding, while also standing in the way of his demolition derby.
\nLikewise, Trump cannot stand multilateral organisations that strengthen smaller and weaker countries vis-\u00e0-vis the US.
\nGiven his \u201cAmerica First\u201d strategy, Trump has spent his presidency undermining institutions such as the World Trade Organisation, and abandoning multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Iran nuclear deal, and the Paris climate accord.
\nAnd because Trump has been able to pick new fights so fast, other countries have struggled to keep up, let alone form effective alliances against him.
\nIn recent weeks, Trump has set his sights squarely on the European Union.
\nAs Ivan Krastev of the Institute for Human Sciences recently observed, the EU now faces the possibility of becoming \u201cthe guardian of a status quo that has ceased to exist.\u201d As a committed Atlanticist and multilateralist, it pains me to admit that he is right.
\nThe time has come for Europe to redefine its interests, and to develop a new strategy for defending them.
\nFirst and foremost, Europeans will have to start thinking for themselves, rather than deferring to the US foreign-policy establishment.
\nThe EU clearly has an interest in preserving the rules-based order that Trump hopes to tear down, and its interests with respect to the Middle East \u2013 particularly Turkey \u2013 and even Russia have increasingly diverged from those of the US.
\nEuropeans should of course try to work with the US whenever possible; but not if it means subordinating their own interests.
\nEuropeans must also start investing in military and economic autonomy \u2013 not to break away from the US, but to hedge against America\u2019s abandonment of its commitments.
\nFortunately, there is already a healthy debate in European capitals about increasing national defence spending to 2% of GDP; and both the EU Permanent Structured Co-operation framework (PESCO) and French President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s new European Intervention Initiative (EI2) represent steps in the right direction.
\nThe question now is whether France\u2019s Force de Frappe (military and nuclear strike force) can be extended to provide a credible deterrent for the rest of the EU.
\nOn the economic front, Europe is facing a dilemma as it weighs its values against its business interests.
\nFormer Belgian foreign minister Mark Eyskens once described Europe as \u201can economic giant, a political dwarf, and a military worm.\u201d But Europe is now in danger of becoming an economic dwarf, too.
\nThe fact that the US can threaten secondary sanctions on European companies for doing business with Iran is deeply worrying.
\nThough the EU is standing up for international law, it remains captive to the tyranny of the dollar system.
\nLooking ahead, the EU needs to gain more leverage for dealing with other great powers such as China and the US.
\nIf Trump wants to make the transatlantic relationship more transactional, then the EU needs to be ready to trade across different policy areas to make deals.
\nConsider the US Department of Defence\u2019s recent request that the United Kingdom send more troops in Afghanistan.
\nIf the EU were taking a muscular approach, it would deny any reinforcements until the US drops its threats of secondary sanctions on European companies.
\nMoreover, Europe needs to develop a strategy for political outreach to others.
\nThe G7 is supposed to be the cockpit of the West, but at its recent summit in Quebec, it seemed to be short-circuiting.
\nSo shocking was Trump\u2019s behaviour that some senior European officials now wonder if US allies should form an independent middle-power alliance, lest they be crushed between the rocks of a rising China and a declining America.
\nIn an increasingly deal-based world, a new G6 might offer a defence of the rules-based system.
\nStill, one wonders if the EU is capable of putting up a united front.
\nWith the bloc splintering into distinct political tribes, it is becoming easier for other powers to pursue a divide-and-conquer strategy.
\nThis has long been Russia\u2019s strategy, and it is now being adopted by China and the US, too.
\nFor example, in 2016, southern and eastern EU member-states that rely on Chinese investment managed to water down a joint EU statement on China\u2019s territorial encroachments in the South China Sea.
\nSimilarly, Trump routinely reaches out to eastern and southern EU member-states in order to sow divisions within the bloc.
\nFor example, US Department of State officials reportedly made it clear to Romania that the US would not press it on rule-of-law violations if it breaks ranks with the EU and moves its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
\nWith US-EU relations already fraught, the Trump administration will be all the more tempted to engage in such tactics.
\nIt is unclear how the EU should respond.
\nIt could impose heavier costs on countries that break ranks on foreign policy, or it could invest more in security so that even countries on the periphery feel as though they have something to lose by undermining EU cohesion.
\nAlternatively, the EU itself could strike a deal with member states, whereby it would go easy on internal political matters in exchange for foreign-policy co-operation.
\nWhatever is decided, the EU urgently needs to chart a new course.
\nRather than being perpetually surprised and outraged by Trump\u2019s affronts, Europeans must develop their own foreign policy with which to confront his behaviour. \u2013 Project Syndicate<\/p>\n

* Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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