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The S-400 has never been used in combat, but it\u2019s already causing geopolitical turmoil.<\/p>\n
By\u00a0Henry Meyer\u00a0and\u00a0Ilya Arkhipov<\/p>\n
Russia\u2019s S-400 missile system has never been used in combat. Yet it\u2019s already provoking fights around the world, as Russia searches for buyers in markets long dominated by American weapons makers. China\u2019s neighbors are fretting as the country bolsters its military reach with Russian hardware, encouraging India to follow suit. Tensions between rivals Saudi Arabia and Qatar have ratcheted up as both countries negotiate with Moscow on possible deals, while the recent decision by NATO member\u00a0Turkey to buy the S-400\u00a0has drawn threats of U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n
With Algeria, Belarus, Iran, and Vietnam also likely customers, Russia could generate $30 billion in sales over the next 12 to 15 years, according to the\u00a0Moscow Defense Brief<\/em>, a leading publisher of Russian military information. That\u2019s all part of President Vladimir Putin\u2019s plan to use the Russian weapons industry not only to earn billions of dollars but also to drive a wedge between the U.S. and some of its key allies. \u201cThe S-400 has both commercial and geopolitical dimensions,\u201d says Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who\u2019s now a foreign policy analyst in Moscow. \u201cIt creates an opening for Russian influence for years to come.\u201d<\/p>\n The Russian weapon has a few advantages over the only other comparable missile system on the market, the MIM-104 Patriot, made by U.S. company\u00a0Raytheon Co., according to defense research group Jane\u2019s by IHS Markit Ltd. Both are surface-to-air systems designed to shoot down aircraft and ballistic missiles. But the S-400 has a longer range than the Patriot, 250 kilometers (155 miles) vs. 160 kilometers. An upgrade coming later this year is expected to stretch the S-400\u2019s range to 400 kilometers. It also has a more powerful radar, can destroy targets moving twice as fast, and is quicker to set up. While both systems are mounted on trucks, the S-400 can be ready for action in five minutes, compared with an hour for a Patriot battery. The S-400 is also slightly cheaper than the Patriot, on a per-battery basis.<\/p>\n The S-500, an advanced version comparable to the U.S. Thaad anti-ballistic-missile system that\u2019s capable of downing hypersonic cruise missiles, is expected to enter production by 2022. The S-400 is manufactured by the state-run company Almaz-Antey, which has been sanctioned by the U.S. over Russia\u2019s military support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. Despite that, Almaz-Antey is opening two sites elsewhere in Russia to supplement its Moscow plant. The Russians don\u2019t shy away from talking up the S-400 to potential buyers. It \u201chas no equal,\u201d says state arms trader Rosoboronexport\u2019s spokesman Vyacheslav Davidenko. \u201cRussian air-defense systems don\u2019t allow anyone to attack without paying a price.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Patriot has superior anti-ballistic-missile capability, says Omar Lamrani, senior military analyst at Stratfor Enterprises LLC, a Texas consultant. It can also be integrated into other U.S.-made missile-defense systems, increasing its effectiveness. The Patriot has a long and successful track record on the battlefield, having come to fame during the 1991 Gulf War. But its performance recently has come under scrutiny. In March video footage appeared to show a\u00a0failed Patriot launch\u00a0as Saudi Arabia intercepted a barrage of rockets fired by Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels. One missile did an abrupt U-turn and crashed into the ground in the Saudi capital, and another one exploded midair. It\u2019s unclear whether the Patriots malfunctioned or the Saudi crew failed to operate them properly. Whatever the cause, it hasn\u2019t stopped Romania, Poland, and Sweden from pursuing plans to buy them. Raytheon declined to comment on the misfire footage, and says that the Patriot\u2019s \u201cperformance in testing scenarios and in combat speaks for itself.\u201d<\/p>\n Russia has a history of producing strong air-defense systems, dating to the Cold War, when it needed to counter NATO\u2019s air forces. In the early 1990s the U.S. paid Boris Yeltsin\u2019s cash-strapped government $120 million for an air-defense launch complex to study the technology. Now the U.S. faces a growing threat from the sale of Russian advanced weaponry to its strategic rivals and erstwhile allies.<\/p>\n In 2014, China signed a $1.9 billion deal to buy 32 S-400 launchers, each equipped with four missiles, half of which were delivered last year, the\u00a0Moscow Defense Brief<\/em>\u00a0says. New contracts with China may be in the pipeline, it adds; these acquisitions will allow the country to threaten aircraft in Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a rebel province, as well as challenge Japan and neighbors in Southeast Asia for control of the skies in disputed areas. \u201cIt poses big challenges for the U.S., Taiwan\u2014which it is obliged to protect\u2014also for American allies and anybody who challenges Chinese territorial claims in the South China Seas,\u201d says Alexander Gabuev, chairman of the Carnegie Moscow Center\u2019s Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program.<\/p>\n India, which has had sporadic skirmishes with China since the countries fought a bloody border war in 1962, is in the final stages of negotiating a $6 billion S-400 deal. According to Indian media, the contract may be signed before an October summit between Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.<\/p>\n Turkey risks U.S. sanctions over its $2.5 billion deal, financed with Russian loans, to buy the S-400. Under a 2017 law, the White House has to penalize countries that conduct a \u201csignificant transaction\u201d with Russia\u2019s defense sector. A defense spending bill passed by the U.S. Senate on June 18 calls for a freeze in arms sales to Turkey in response to its S-400 purchases. The bill also calls for the removal of Turkey from the F-35 joint strike fighter program, a multicountry, $400 billion plan to build and sell tactical jets to allies. Turkey was a key member of the program; it had ordered 100 F-35s and was slated to co-produce the jet. Some of its companies are the sole producers of essential parts in the supply chain. \u201cThe Turks have got to decide whether they\u2019re going to be in NATO or aligned with Russia,\u201d says Senator James Lankford, an Oklahoma Republican.<\/p>\n Despite the threats, Turkey\u2019s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, says the deal to buy the S-400 is done. On June 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey and Russia may also co-produce the next-generation S-500. \u201cRussia seems to have communicated to Turkey that it\u2019s in their interest in one way or another to align with them,\u201d says Thomas Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. \u201cThis is one of several ways in which they seem to be hugging their friends to the northeast.\u201d The deal is a major milestone toward improving ties between the two countries after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet near its border with Syria in 2015.<\/p>\n On June 21, the\u00a0U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations\u00a0passed an amendment attached to the annual Department of State funding bill that prohibits spending money to transfer the F-35 to Turkey until the secretary of state certifies that Turkey isn\u2019t buying the S-400. \u201cThis provision makes it clear that if Turkey ignores the concerns of its NATO allies and moves forward with this partnership with Putin, it will no longer receive F-35s,\u201d Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland, said in a statement.<\/p>\n Although losing Turkey as a customer would be a hit to\u00a0F-35 manufacturer\u00a0Lockheed Martin Corp., there are concerns that Russia will gain valuable intelligence\u2014insights into U.S. air defense and aerial capabilities\u2014if the country remains in the program. Senior U.S. defense officials have said that if Turkey operates both the F-35 and the S-400, it could compromise the F-35\u2019s security, including its stealth capabilities.\u00a0\u201cIt is in the American national interest to see Turkey remain strategically and politically aligned with the West, and we believe it is also in Turkey\u2019s interests,\u201d Assistant Secretary A. Wess Mitchell said at a congressional hearing in April.<\/p>\n As for Saudi Arabia, the increasingly warm ties it\u2019s enjoyed with Russia, particularly over coordination in the oil markets, have also provoked alarm in the U.S. President Trump\u2019s nominee for assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, David Schenker, said during his Senate confirmation hearing on June 14 that he would \u201ctell Saudi Arabia not to do it\u201d when asked about the kingdom\u2019s talks to buy the S-400. During\u00a0an historic visit\u00a0by King Salman to Russia in October, Saudi Arabia agreed on other arms purchases, including antitank weapons and multiple-rocket launchers, and licensed Saudi production of Kalashnikov assault rifles.<\/p>\n